(no subject)

[vicarz]

It figures - my favorite on-line dj right now is Dr. Galactik, who it turns out happens to be from Canada. Grr.

I'm going to drink less. Hopefully not going to the hospital daily will make this come naturally, but I just did a run to the recycle bin and couldn't believe how many large liquor bottles made up my contribution to reusable materials. What if I needed to throw together a quick molotov?

Plowing through all those old-school pictures made me do a memory check, and theorize that nonscientific or not, I was due a large dose of karma payback. So I'm going to ride and try to learn from what has happened, spend some time reflecting and not even trust my own memories - break out of familiar thought patterns and really question why I did what, and how that impacted others. They say you pay it back 3 times over - so that's what I'll do if faced with it. Hopefully I can learn.

It appears I don't need to waive into the DC bar at all! According to at least one source, there are no time restrictions for admission to the DC bar. It's just a question of having the right scores, which I do. If I don't need to but the door remains open until later, then I will save the $1,000 in app fees and just be a MD bar'd lawyer. The DC bar site seems to agree that there are no timelines, but I've heard otherwise through casual conversation. Still, I could use that $1,000 plus dues for other things.

I still haven't paid out my tithe - need to kick down to my charities NOW. On the other hand, my marvel stock just jumped 20% in a day. I think my next retirement purchase is going to be citigroup, down 5% today alone - they are so beat up by the publicity on the subprime market in general and their giant missteps that they are down almost half! This means their p/e is like 8. They were equal debt to cash (if you trust their books) but plan to write off 6-8 bil of their 27 bil. I think these numbers are already reflected in their price, and this is just hysteria. Previously I bought them at 46 sold at 55 - today it's 36! Their finances are still really solid, and I don't think they're going anywhere. Come Jan, I think I'm going to put all my $ into C for my 2008 retirement contribution. Or sooner. "Your bad news is my opportunity."

Comments

[samaritan1975.livejournal.com]

Watch Merrill Lynch.

[anarcha.livejournal.com]

Sorry -- still trying to follow up on your question about the bar thing.

[vicar.livejournal.com]

Don't worry about it! It's my responsibility :) What good is a wannabe lawyer who can't do his own research? I better be good at soliciting...clients.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

Does that P/E ration factor in their recent write-downs, and the ones they've warned are coming?

[vicar.livejournal.com]

Nope, but 8? It's still low even for a financial. Good point though...

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

What I am hearing is that their revenue for "this year" is going to be cut in half. I they are restating earnings for prior years, does that make it a P/E of 16....or if it is all coming in the 4th quarter, does that give them a PE of 32?

[vicar.livejournal.com]

Honestly I'm not sure. The p/e probably reflects the current price, which in turn takes the market's interpretation of value compared to expected revenues. If the revenues in that computation are based on its prior quarters, the as you note the p/e means diddly. I suspect it'll return to those revenues in 2-3 years, although people have guestimated the housing slump as 5-10 years.

This is why it's probably I don't invest much.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

I don't think that putting money in C is necessarily a bad idea, but I would look for it to trade flat for the same price for a few days before putting money in (literally look for some sideways trading on the chart - it gapped down more then a few times today). Also, if you look at the 5 year chart, notice that 35 is a lower resistance point....let it close above 35 for a few days first. Because if it closes below 35, it could easily move to that 22ish resistance point from 98.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

This may be worth a read:

http://community.livejournal.com/cramermadmoney/132925.html#cutid1

[vicar.livejournal.com]

Thanks - interesting how much faith they put in leadership, and what the different choices would mean.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

This is really worth the read. Normally you would have to pay for such a thorough overview:

http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/dividend-stock-wednesday-citigroup-c/

[vicar.livejournal.com]

Wow, thanks for the link! Interesting read - he thinks this is at the top of the buy range in one sense, but it is fair to guess that the history of high dividends is indeed in jeapordy. I may yet get it, as I'm 100% long-term with my retirement stocks and that is where I am looking to purchase.

We'll see how things go in teh next 2 months.

You really seem to research and know your investments. I should get back into that once I am more liquid again.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

I try to find roughly 2 dozen good companies and stay on top of them - although my stocks are probably a bit more risky then yours:

GOOG
VMW
APPL
ZUMZ
CCJ

are some of my favorites

[vicar.livejournal.com]

I've been watching GOOG and APPL, and if I bought anything in them I would have shorted. Needless to say, damn lucky I didn't!

Maybe before I get liquid again I'll research, make a fake porfolio, and see how I do in imagination land.

I'll have to scan those others too. I only knew two off the top of my head.

How did you educate yourself?

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

Education has happened over a very long time - and through various methods. My new job will hopefully help a bit. I am going to be working at a place called foliofn on their trading software after thanksgiving.

I do try to catch 1 or 2 shows of Mad Money every week to hear about new companies that I should be interested in. I also do get emails that I scan to see if they are about companies I should be interested in. Its not small work, but I also expect pretty good returns. Like my current investment in Apple is in options, and I'm looking for about 100% return in the month.

BTW - Green energy is all the rage these days.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

So Citigroup is getting an injection of cash, but wow that rate is really horrible. Imagine what they have to charge their customers to make a profit...

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200711270827DOWJONESDJONLINE000254_FORTUNE5.htm

[vicar.livejournal.com]

I was noting that! I didn't know about the rate...thanks for the pointer. Huh.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

To wrap this thread up - I still constantly hear the money being referred to as an investment in the company - so I'm not quite sure what is correct or not. I have heard since Friday that a lot of analysts are saying that now is the time to buy Citigroup, and that the downside has been built in.

Also seems like some of the market makers are trying to spur a rally in the financial sector with the opening of the market tomorrow.

[vicar.livejournal.com]

I'm hearing the same thing but haven't done enough research still to make an informed guess.

Edit - if they tried, it doesn't look like a whopping success...

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

I realize it has been 1 month since this comment, and 2 months since the post but I think we are now getting close to the buy time on Citigroup as long as your time horizon is at least 1 year.

[vicar.livejournal.com]

I actually made my purchase earlier - down 12% :)

Luckily my timeframe on retirement stocks is more in the 2-10 year or more timeframe.

However as it is 2008, I just deleted the email versions of your comments to this thread and put the companies on my watch list. That zummy thing is about to open in the Potato Mill Mall

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

Always interesting to go back and learn from your mistakes. If I had made a purchase a little bit after my comment, I would have gotten a price at the trough below 25, but would still be down close to 20% on the transaction.

I have been doing slow and steady 401K purchases (every two weeks) between AAPL and ZUMZ depending on which has been cheaper since the December timeframe. Net up is just at 20%, but it was between down and flat for the first months of the year.

[vicar.livejournal.com]

Heh. I got volcm (sp?) and it's doing gangbusters, whereas mo split and is meh. C failed. Still, a risk that is only down 25% is hardly my worst case scenario.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

Yeah - given market climate, there is little to complain, its just good to do a retrospective after a while. As I have watched Citibank decline, I have often wondered about what the price was when we were discussing so I had to go back and look!

Volcom and Zumies gets the kids allowances of rich parents all across the country and those are the people I don't feel who aren't really feeling the pinch of rising food and gas prices too much yet.

[vicar.livejournal.com]

I think I got it at 30, you said it was good around 25ish if memory serves.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

How wrong we both were:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080626/citigroup_research_goldman.html

As I heard about this this morning, I was thinking about it, and how I may open up a position in the near future. I think any position I open will be hedged with a purchase of some puts though. Its a shame that strategies such as that can't be done in a retirement account usually.

[vicar.livejournal.com]

This is novel economic territory - hard as hell to predict this stuff.

On the other hand - I still own two condos! Sure my accounts are gone, but at least I sold most of my private investments to put money into my real estate while the market crashed. Meh. The real estate depreciated too, but not as much.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

Oh yeah - my investments are down too, but stock and real estate. I just like to look back at past decisions and hopefully learn from them so that I make better ones in the future.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

So....any thoughts on the government possibly taking a 40% stake in Citi?

[vicar.livejournal.com]

It props up my 90% loss in their stock to a mere 80% loss on paper. I haven't really gone into the analysis, other than I can't disagree with the "let failure happen" cry without more knowledge of the scope and impact of such a loss on the system as a whole.

[translucent-eye.livejournal.com]

Since this kinda documents my watch over Citibank, I should mention that I finally purchased my first shares of C on 4/16 (200@3.23) and my twitter from that day says it all:

Picked up a lil $C (gambling) and $F (adding). Single letter tickers under $5....

[vicar.livejournal.com]

My "if only I picked those lottery #s yesterday" sensibilities are wishing I bought a ton (I had just sold my house too) when it was skimming the $1 mark. I'd be out now having tripled...

But I'd never do a risk like that in reality.